Valuation Framework Points to Discount Versus Listed Fintechs

Grayscale Research has assessed Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE through an earnings-per-token approach that adapts traditional equity metrics to the decentralized derivatives platform. Head of Research Zach Pandl’s analysis assumes the protocol will generate roughly $1 billion in earnings in 2027, approximately 20 percent higher than the 2025 level. Growth is expected to stem from recovering cryptocurrency trading volumes and income from stablecoin reserves linked to the platform’s Aligned Quote Asset framework.

With circulating supply projected between 270 million and 310 million tokens by the end of 2027, the model produces earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 per token. At recent prices near $54, this implies a forward multiple of about 15x to 18x. Grayscale argues this valuation appears modest when compared with publicly traded fintech companies such as Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle, which trade at substantially higher multiples relative to their revenue generation.

The firm notes that applying multiples closer to 35x or 40x, more in line with certain peers, could imply significantly higher price levels. At the same time, the projections carry clear risks. Weaker-than-expected network revenue growth or faster expansion of token supply could reduce the per-token earnings trajectory and compress the multiple.

Near-Term Price Pressure from Unstaking and Fund Flows

The long-term valuation case arrives against a backdrop of persistent selling. HYPE has declined more than 13 percent over the past month and trades approximately 29 percent below its mid-June peak near $76 to $80. The token has underperformed larger cryptocurrency assets that retained more of their earlier advances.

On-chain activity shows substantial unstaking by early institutional backers. Multicoin Capital and Paradigm removed roughly $291 million worth of staked HYPE in the past week. Subsequent wallet movements indicated Multicoin received about 1.29 million tokens valued near $71 million, with a portion later transferred to Coinbase. A wallet associated with Selini Capital moved approximately 495,000 HYPE, worth about $26.8 million, to the OKX exchange. Bitwise has also sold tens of millions of dollars in HYPE over recent weeks, activity linked in part to outflows from its related investment product.

Spot HYPE funds recorded $8.6 million in outflows last week, marking a second consecutive weekly decline and leaving product assets 18 percent below their July 10 high. July as a whole saw the first monthly net outflow for the products since their debut, totaling around $4.5 million, though cumulative inflows remain positive.

Emerging Institutional Interest and Platform Developments

Not all institutional activity has been one-directional. Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market issuer Iole disclosed that it has begun acquiring HYPE as a strategic digital asset. The company revised the use of proceeds from a recent warrant issuance to include broader digital-asset purchases and completed an initial buy of 1,078 HYPE for roughly 10 million yen. It plans additional purchases through August aiming for total exposure of 100 million yen and may stake the tokens to participate in governance. The firm described the holding as infrastructure linked to its Neo Crypto Bank strategy focused on agentic commerce and on-chain settlement.

Separately, TradeXYZ, a major deployer on the platform, announced it would compensate traders affected by a $57.4 million liquidation event tied to an oracle price anomaly involving SK Hynix contracts. The step was viewed by some market participants as a measure that could support confidence in both the deployer and the broader Hyperliquid ecosystem.

Technical Picture and Key Levels

Technical indicators currently point to a cautious near-term environment. The token has tested support zones around $54, with further downside levels watched near the 200-day moving average in the low $50s and potentially lower if selling accelerates. Resistance is seen in the mid-to-high $50s. Derivatives data show open interest remaining elevated but funding rates subdued, consistent with reduced leverage enthusiasm.

Whether the protocol can deliver the revenue growth embedded in Grayscale’s model will determine if the current discount to fintech peers narrows over time. Near-term positioning continues to be shaped by the pace of institutional supply coming to market and the ability of new demand sources to absorb it.