Standard Chartered has begun formal research coverage of Ethena and its native token ENA, assigning a year-end 2028 price target of $2. The projection, issued on September 30 by Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, implies roughly a sevenfold increase from the roughly $0.28 reference level used in the note and positions ENA to outpace the bank’s own forecasts for Bitcoin and Ether over the same period.

Standard Chartered also projects ENA will reach $0.42 by the end of 2026 and $1.10 by the end of 2027. At the time of the report ENA was trading near $0.25 to $0.27, having risen about 28 percent over the prior week and roughly 77 percent over the past month. The token’s market capitalization stood near $2.65 billion.

USDe Growth and Diversified Yield Sources

The core of the bank’s thesis centers on Ethena’s synthetic dollar stablecoin USDe. Current supply sits near $4.9 billion to $4.98 billion. Standard Chartered expects that figure to expand approximately eightfold to about $40 billion by the end of 2028, slightly outpacing overall stablecoin market growth.

Ethena ranks as the fourth-largest stablecoin issuer behind Tether, Circle and Sky, and second among yield-bearing stablecoin issuers. Declining returns from the traditional crypto basis trade—holding spot assets while shorting perpetual futures—have prompted the protocol to broaden its yield generation. It has moved into decentralized finance and institutional lending, real-world assets, and basis trades involving equities and commodities. Those diversified sources currently produce a blended yield of about 5.2 percent.

One recent expansion uses Binance bStocks for tokenized spot equity exposure paired with equity perpetual futures as a hedge. Open interest in Binance equity perpetuals has surpassed $2.9 billion, with a reported six-month annualized basis return averaging 3.56 percent.

Standard Chartered further anticipates substantial growth in the broader tokenized-asset market, which would enlarge the pool of instruments Ethena can employ for yield. Forecasts cited in related coverage range from an expansion of real-world assets on blockchains from around $40 billion to $2 trillion, or from roughly $350 billion to $4 trillion, by the end of 2028.

Buyback Mechanism Tied to Supply Milestones

A fee-switch proposal approved by Ethena governance in early September forms a central pillar of the valuation case. Once USDe supply reaches specified thresholds, 95 percent of net revenue across Ethena’s business lines is directed toward programmatic ENA buybacks.

Buybacks do not begin until USDe supply hits $7.5 billion. Allocation of eligible net revenue then rises with successive supply milestones: 5 percent at $7.5 billion, 10 percent at $10 billion, 15 percent at $15 billion and 20 percent at $20 billion. At a $25 billion USDe supply level, Ethena has estimated the mechanism could generate $375 million in annual buybacks under assumptions of a 6 percent gross protocol yield and a 25 percent net revenue take rate.

The bank’s forecasts for Bitcoin at $300,000 and Ether at $18,000 by the end of 2028 imply that ENA is projected to deliver stronger relative performance over the period.

Near-Term Market Conditions and Supply Event

ENA has regained key technical support after a sharp September advance that approached $0.30. Trading has recently ranged between roughly $0.244 and $0.263, with the token moving back above its nine-day moving average near $0.251 while remaining just below the 21-day average near $0.260.

A sizable token unlock is scheduled for October 5, when approximately 1.4 billion ENA tokens are expected to enter circulation. Only tokens held by the foundation or Ethena Labs employees, representing about 12 percent of total supply, will continue vesting after that date, according to the research note. The unlock introduces potential near-term selling pressure even as the longer-term narrative of revenue-linked buybacks and USDe expansion remains intact.

Standard Chartered’s initiation expands its series of digital-asset coverage that already includes Uniswap, Aave, Morpho, Chainlink, Arbitrum and Sky. The bank identifies slower-than-expected growth in yield-bearing stablecoins such as USDe as the primary risk to its outlook.