Bitcoin has advanced roughly 24 percent over the past week to trade near $76,800–$77,000, prompting Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research to caution that the bank’s existing year-end price target of $100,000 may prove conservative.

Geoff Kendrick said in a client note that for the first time this year there is a risk his end-of-year forecast of $100,000 is too low. He indicated that the cryptocurrency could move toward its previous all-time high of $126,000 before the close of 2026, with the rebound potentially strengthening after October 6.

Drivers of the Recent Advance

Kendrick attributed the latest rally largely to the liquidation of short positions, which forced buying and propelled prices higher. He also pointed to a recovery in capital flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as an additional source of demand that could broaden participation beyond forced covering.

Low open interest across the market leaves capacity for investors to rebuild positions as prices rise, according to the analyst. This combination of reduced leveraged exposure and returning institutional interest has supported Bitcoin’s climb after it spent much of the prior two months in the $60,000 to $65,000 range.

Context of the Forecast Revision

Standard Chartered has not formally replaced its $100,000 year-end projection with a higher figure. Kendrick described the $126,000 level as one Bitcoin may revisit if the current recovery continues to gain traction, while noting that the bank’s standing target could turn out to be cautious.

The present assessment marks a shift from earlier in the year. In a February report, Kendrick reduced the bank’s year-end Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 and lowered its Ether forecast from $7,500 to $4,000. At that time he anticipated Bitcoin could decline toward $50,000 before recovering. The cryptocurrency’s lowest point instead settled in the upper $50,000s before buyers returned.

The bank held to its $100,000 call through subsequent volatility in June and July, even as prices briefly approached $59,000 and later struggled around the $65,000 zone. Bitcoin has since risen more than $17,000 above that June low and cleared the resistance levels that constrained the market in July.

Significance of the October Date

Kendrick identified October 6 as a potential inflection point. The date aligns closely with Bitcoin’s 2025 market peak, after which the asset entered a prolonged decline that extended into 2026. Market behavior once that anniversary passes could help determine whether the rebound sustains momentum through the remainder of the year.

At current levels near $77,000, Bitcoin remains approximately 39 percent below the bank’s $100,000 forecast and roughly 39–64 percent below the $126,000 record, depending on the precise reference price used at the time of the note.

Broader Market Signals

Other market participants have also cited indications that the recent downtrend may be approaching an end. Swan Bitcoin chief executive Cory Klippsten has suggested Bitcoin could form a bottom in October, while 10x Research founder Markus Thielen has stated that an August monthly close above $63,000 could help confirm a bear-market floor. Bitcoin has already traded well above that threshold in August.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which weakened earlier in the year and contributed to downward pressure, have shown signs of improvement during the July and August recoveries. Stronger institutional demand of this kind would supply buying that does not rely solely on short covering, according to Kendrick’s analysis.

The bank’s latest comments arrive as Bitcoin has broken through successive resistance zones that had capped earlier rebound attempts, leaving the market focused on whether the combination of technical momentum, improving fund flows and reduced positioning can extend the advance into the final months of the year.