Brandt's Technical View on XAU/BTC

Peter Brandt shared his analysis on the XAU/BTC pair, noting a long-term chart pattern where the ratio appears to form a rounded bottom and begins curling upward. This setup follows years of Bitcoin dominance, during which the ratio trended lower. Brandt stated he is considering selling some of his Bitcoin holdings to purchase gold, viewing the metal as positioned for substantial gains relative to the cryptocurrency.

The monthly chart of XAU/BTC, which tracks the price of one ounce of gold in Bitcoin terms, shows the ratio near 0.067. According to Brandt's reading, the pace of the prior decline has slowed since around 2019-2020, with sellers of gold relative to Bitcoin appearing exhausted. This flattening has given way to initial signs of reversal within an ascending channel.

Recent Performance Comparison

Bitcoin experienced notable declines in 2026, dropping around 28% year-to-date and 20% in June alone. Gold, by contrast, fell about 3.9% year-to-date and 11.7% in June, holding up better during the period. These figures underscore the relative strength Brandt identifies in the traditional asset.

Current market levels place Bitcoin near $63,000, well below prior peaks, while gold trades around $4,175 per ounce after its own pullback from higher levels.

Differing Views from Other Analysts

Michaël van de Poppe responded to the chart analysis, stating that a significant Bitcoin rally could render the current ratio setup less relevant. He noted that if Bitcoin doubles in price, interpretations of relative weakness against gold would change.

Michael Saylor attributed Bitcoin's recent lag to capital flows into artificial intelligence projects rather than a broad move into precious metals. On-chain data indicated that long-term Bitcoin holders added to their positions during the downturn, absorbing available supply.

Pablo Heman expressed a balanced position, maintaining exposure to both assets. He anticipated near-term recovery potential for Bitcoin above certain support levels while viewing gold and silver positively over longer periods, citing developments in global gold pricing mechanisms.

Broader Market Context and Cycle Considerations

Brandt has previously discussed Bitcoin cycle patterns, suggesting a possible tradeable low around September or October based on historical repetitions over the past 15 years. His longer-term outlook remains constructive for Bitcoin, with projections reaching substantial levels by the end of the decade.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone highlighted potential deflationary signals, with Bitcoin possibly acting as an early indicator. He noted elevated correlations between gold and equity markets, such as the 60-day link to the S&P 500 reaching multi-decade highs.

The XAU/BTC ratio continues to serve as a reference point for comparing the two assets. Any sustained move higher in the ratio would align with views of gold regaining ground, while rejection could point to renewed Bitcoin momentum.