MV Capital - Scaramucci Views Bitcoin’s Milder 55% Decline as Signal of Underlying Buyer Strength

SkyBridge Capital founder points to shallower losses versus past cycles, capital shifts to AI, and the approaching next halving as key factors shaping the current market phase

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, described the present Bitcoin market as a clear bear market while arguing that its relatively limited decline points to resilient demand. Speaking with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, he contrasted the current drawdown with deeper losses in earlier cycles and outlined reasons for longer-term optimism.

Shallower Losses Than Historical Patterns

Scaramucci noted that Bitcoin has fallen roughly 55 percent from its peak in this cycle. He compared that figure with declines of 75 percent to 80 percent seen in previous bear markets. Over 37 years in finance, he said he has observed nine such downturns, making the milder move stand out.

This is a clear Bitcoin bear market, and yet we’ve only had a 55% drop in Bitcoin. In other bear markets you’ve gotten like a 75-80% drop. So weirdly, you could take a position where that’s actually a good sign that there’s a lot of net buyers going into the next bull phase of Bitcoin.Anthony Scaramucci

Bitcoin reached a record near $126,000 in October 2025 before sliding below $60,000 during a June liquidation wave. The price has since recovered to the area around $64,000, placing the drawdown from the all-time high closer to 49 percent. Scaramucci maintained that the contained losses suggest a stronger base of holders already positioning for the next upward phase.

Factors Behind Prolonged Stagnation

Price action has remained muted for months. Scaramucci observed that levels have stayed within a narrow range since February, when geopolitical tensions intensified. He attributed the lack of momentum to several concurrent pressures.

Some Bitcoin miners have redirected computing resources toward artificial intelligence applications. At the same time, capital has left the broader cryptocurrency sector, including altcoins, and moved into AI-related investments. These flows have reduced support for digital assets across the board.

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle also plays a role. The market is currently in the portion of the cycle typically associated with weaker conditions. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, cutting the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Scaramucci estimated that the next halving remains approximately 18 to 19 months away.

Longer-Term Outlook Tied to Supply Reduction

Despite the ongoing bearish environment, Scaramucci expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s prospects once the next supply adjustment takes place. He expects the reduction in newly issued coins to create upward pressure and said the cryptocurrency could move back above $100,000.

I think you’ll see the thing move back up over $100,000. But it’s going to grind for a while.Anthony Scaramucci

He cautioned that prices may continue to trade sideways in the near term as the market works through the remaining portion of the current cycle. The timing of any recovery, he indicated, remains dependent on the interplay of supply dynamics, investor demand, and broader capital allocation trends.

Scaramucci’s assessment rests on the relative resilience of the present decline rather than a claim that the bear market has already ended. Bitcoin continues to trade nearly 50 percent below its record high, with near-term direction still subject to leverage conditions, exchange-traded product flows, and macroeconomic developments.