MV Capital - Gold Nears $4,700 as Bitcoin Surpasses $80,000 Amid Weaker Dollar

Precious metal reaches three-month peak before easing, while Bitcoin climbs above $80,000 for first time since May, fueled by softer dollar and lower Treasury yields ahead of key US data

Gold prices advanced to their highest level in more than three months on Tuesday, briefly touching $4,696.18 per ounce before retreating, as a softer US dollar and declining long-term Treasury yields lifted demand for the precious metal. Bitcoin moved in parallel, crossing $80,000 for the first time since mid-May and reaching as high as $81,237 before giving back some gains.

The dual advance occurred against a backdrop of expanded US Treasury bond buybacks and ongoing fiscal concerns, which have reduced the appeal of the dollar and government debt. Spot gold later eased toward $4,640–$4,647 an ounce, while US gold futures held near $4,696, maintaining a premium over the spot market.

Drivers Behind the Parallel Rally

The US Treasury’s decision last week to enlarge its program of buying back longer-dated securities triggered a drop in yields and further dollar weakness. Gold rose roughly 3 percent following the announcement. The dollar index traded near 98.96 in Asian hours, supporting bullion priced in the greenback.

Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets such as gold. Investors have also cited broader worries about currency debasement and fiscal credibility. Bitcoin has increasingly been viewed alongside gold as a scarce asset in this environment.

BTC and gold rising together while the dollar weakens is consistent with debasement and fiscal-credibility concerns, i.e., the classic ‘hard asset’ hedge trade. But a weaker dollar alongside elevated yields can also reflect higher term premium, inflation uncertainty, or changing growth expectations rather than a pure loss of faith in Treasuries, so the correlation is suggestive rather than proof as of now.Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen

Additional support came from geopolitical developments, including the end of a US-Iran ceasefire earlier in the month and subsequent US sanctions measures. Physical demand also improved, with China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong rising about 11 percent in July.

Investment Flows Recover

Global gold-backed exchange-traded funds attracted $3 billion in net inflows during July, reversing two prior months of outflows. Holdings increased by 23 metric tons to 4,068 tons, while assets under management reached $530 billion, up 1 percent from the previous month.

European funds led the recovery with more than $2 billion in inflows, followed by $616 million from Asia and $71 million from North America. Markets have largely discounted the chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting after softer recent data.

Markets have largely priced out a September Fed hike as softer data, albeit influenced by seasonality and World Cup-related distortions, have eased concerns about further tightening. At the same time, Commodity Trading Advisor positioning in Treasury futures is still very short, and a reversal could reinforce downward pressure on yields and an already softer dollar, adding further support to the nascent recovery in gold since the beginning of the month.World Gold Council

Technical Levels and Near-Term Tests

After testing the $4,680–$4,700 area, gold has pulled back to examine the $4,615–$4,623 support zone. Holding above this band could allow a retest of $4,658–$4,668 and the $4,680–$4,692 swing-high region. A sustained move through $4,700–$4,712 would open the door to further gains.

On the downside, a break below $4,615 would shift attention to $4,588–$4,597 and then the stronger demand area near $4,558–$4,568. A decisive move under $4,558 would signal a deeper correction.

Price Level	Role
$4,615–$4,623	First intraday support
$4,658–$4,668	Initial resistance
$4,680–$4,692	Recent swing-high resistance
$4,700–$4,712	Key breakout zone
$4,588–$4,597	Secondary support
$4,558–$4,568	Major demand zone

Longer-term charts remain constructive. Weekly COMEX gold futures trade near $4,693, well above the 50-week exponential moving average around $4,278. The weekly relative strength index sits near 59.7, recovering above its midpoint without entering overbought territory.

While gold prices continue to find support, it may be too soon for the metal to attempt a move towards the $5,350 target, especially if higher inflation continues to keep interest rates elevated.TD Securities

Focus Shifts to Inflation Data and Jackson Hole

Attention now turns to the July Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge. A softer reading could reinforce expectations of no further tightening, potentially weighing further on yields and the dollar. A hotter print would complicate the picture, strengthening gold’s inflation-hedge case while raising the prospect of higher rates.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week. Markets will parse the remarks for signals on the policy path. Gold has already posted three consecutive weeks of gains and cleared its 200-day moving average, adding technical momentum to the fundamental drivers.

Both gold and Bitcoin remain sensitive to shifts in US fiscal policy, currency dynamics and geopolitical risk as August trading continues.