The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight issued a staff advisory on September 22, 2026, cautioning designated contract markets about event contracts commonly known as mention markets. These products settle based on whether a named person says specific words or phrases, attends or appears at an event, or interacts with another individual.

According to the advisory, such contracts present a heightened risk of manipulation because their outcomes turn on the discrete conduct of one person or a small group. That conduct may be neither independently generated nor externally verifiable. The guidance states there are only limited circumstances in which these contracts can be listed consistently with the Commodity Exchange Act and Commission regulations.

The advisory is informational and creates no new legal obligations. It reminds exchanges of their existing duty under Core Principle 3 to list only derivatives that are not readily susceptible to manipulation. Staff indicated that mention markets may be viewed as presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation, though exchanges can seek to rebut that view in specific cases by demonstrating strong design and controls.

Key Factors Exchanges Must Evaluate

When considering whether to list a mention contract, designated contract markets are expected to examine several factors. These include whether adequate oversight and surveillance measures exist to detect manipulation or misuse of nonpublic information, whether the settlement trigger can be independently verified, whether outside parties could exert pressure or inducements on the individual whose conduct determines the outcome, and whether that individual is subject to independent legal, professional, fiduciary, confidentiality, contractual or organizational duties that would deter deliberate interference.

Public settings with substantial scrutiny, such as formal speeches by public figures, may offer stronger verification opportunities. Contracts tied to incidental words, private conduct or non-public individuals raise greater concerns. Staff also noted that exchanges must still maintain their own market-surveillance responsibilities even when the subject of a contract faces external obligations.

Future product submissions under Part 40 are expected to include detailed, contract-specific analysis of these manipulation risks and the controls intended to address them. Position limits, reporting requirements, recordkeeping and surveillance should be calibrated around potential controllers and known insiders.

Recent Enforcement Actions Underscore Concerns

The advisory follows enforcement cases in which individuals used privileged access or their own statements to influence event-contract outcomes. In August 2026, the CFTC ordered former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez to disgorge $107,539.02 in trading profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty. Perez received a three-year trading ban after the agency found he misappropriated advance access to President Donald Trump’s speeches between December 2025 and February 2026 and traded related mention contracts profitably. The exchange involved assisted the investigation.

In a separate July 2026 matter, former Representative George Santos settled charges related to contracts on whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union address. The CFTC found that Santos made public statements about his attendance plans that moved contract prices in directions favorable to his positions. He was ordered to disgorge $17,569.98, pay a $17,500 civil penalty and accept a three-year trading ban. The platform later imposed a permanent suspension on him.

Market Response and Ongoing Activity

The guidance does not impose an industry-wide ban. As of September 23, 2026, at least one major platform continued to list contracts tied to what President Trump might say during United Nations meetings, covering terms such as AI, NATO and ceasefire. One related speech contract had recorded nearly $194,000 in volume in available data. Earlier in 2026 the same platform had self-certified templates for word-mention contracts involving specific individuals.

In August, amid a reported regulatory review, the platform removed sports-related mention contracts while retaining certain political and corporate versions. Mention and culture markets were also excluded from a separate margin-trading proposal filed around the same time as the advisory.

CFTC Chair Mike Selig welcomed the staff guidance, stating that regulatory clarity drives sound markets and that the advisory reminds designated contract markets of their obligation to list only contracts not readily susceptible to manipulation.

Broader Regulatory Context

The advisory arrives as federally registered prediction markets continue to grow. Trading volume on these platforms surpassed $25 billion in 2025, a figure the agency described as significant yet still small relative to the overall futures market it oversees. A separate June 2026 proposal to amend Regulation 40.11 remains pending; it would establish a formal review process for certain sensitive event contracts, including those involving gaming, terrorism, war and unlawful activities.

Exchanges remain responsible for ensuring compliance when submitting new or amended products. Staff expect each filing involving mention markets to contain a thorough evaluation of the identified risks and the specific safeguards designed to mitigate them.