Analyst Upgrade Signals Shift in Robinhood Strategy

Bernstein analysts raised their 12-month price target on Robinhood Markets stock to $160 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The move implies potential upside of around 60 percent from recent trading levels near $100. The firm highlighted Robinhood's positioning to capture growth in emerging product areas including prediction markets, tokenized equities, and related blockchain infrastructure.

Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani noted that these segments could form part of a broader opportunity exceeding $70 billion across prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized assets, and similar products. Robinhood's large user base of 27 million funded accounts and 14 million monthly active users provides a key advantage for rapid product launches with minimal customer acquisition costs.

Prediction Markets Poised for Rapid Expansion

Prediction markets stand out as the fastest-growing area according to Bernstein's projections. The firm forecasts revenue from this segment reaching $1.7 billion by 2028, expanding at a 64 percent compound annual growth rate. This could surpass Robinhood's crypto trading revenue as early as the second quarter of 2026, with estimates of about $150 million from prediction markets in that period.

Robinhood's Rothera exchange, launched in late May, has already processed more than 3.5 billion contracts. FIFA World Cup-related markets accounted for roughly 93 percent of that activity. Rothera currently represents around 16 percent of Robinhood's event contract volume, with the remainder routed through its partner Kalshi.

Tokenization and Blockchain Infrastructure

Beyond prediction markets, Bernstein pointed to tokenized real-world assets as a significant long-term opportunity. Robinhood has developed Robinhood Chain, its proprietary Arbitrum-based layer-2 network, to support tokenized assets and onchain financial products. The chain has surpassed $400 million in total value locked and is on track for substantial decentralized exchange volumes.

Onchain real-world assets are projected to grow from approximately $35 billion currently to between $2 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030. Tokenized stocks have already reached nearly $2 billion in market value this year. Bernstein views Robinhood's control over its own blockchain infrastructure as enabling faster product development and greater value capture.

Crypto Trading Slowdown Viewed as Temporary

Bernstein lowered its 2026 crypto revenue forecast by 49 percent due to softer trading volumes in the first half of the year. This adjustment reduced the overall 2026 revenue estimate to $5.3 billion. However, analysts described the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural, with potential upside from any recovery in bitcoin prices not fully incorporated into their models.

Newer business lines are expected to rise from about 3 percent of revenue in 2025 to 18 percent in 2027 and 23 percent in 2028. Bernstein's 2028 earnings per share estimate stands at $4.56, which exceeds consensus figures.

Broader Industry Momentum in Tokenization

Parallel developments in the financial sector support the tokenization thesis. Brokerage infrastructure provider Alpaca and Broadridge Financial Solutions integrated governance tools, including proxy voting and regulatory disclosures, into Alpaca’s Instant Tokenization Network. Separately, Securitize partnered with Cantor Fitzgerald to advance blockchain-based IPO and equity offering infrastructure.

These initiatives aim to provide tokenized securities with governance rights comparable to traditional shares, facilitating wider institutional adoption.

Robinhood is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings later this month, providing further insight into how these newer initiatives are performing amid varying market conditions.