Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of the family office Maelstrom, has outlined year-end 2026 price targets for several crypto assets in a recent newsletter focused on euro-yen exchange rate dynamics. Hayes stated that Maelstrom’s preferred crypto holdings remain unchanged, with a structural long position in Bitcoin serving as the portfolio’s core anchor. He described more speculative shorter-term positions targeting Ether at $10,000, Ethena (ENA) at $0.50 and Ether.fi (ETHFI) at $2 by the close of 2026.

Macro Drivers Behind the Outlook

Hayes identified the euro-yen exchange rate as his primary macro indicator. He expects EURJPY to decline from levels near 185 toward 140 or lower by mid-2027. In his view, this move would stem from a combination of U.S. Treasury policy under Secretary Scott Bessent, potential Bank of Japan rate increases, and stress in the French banking sector. These factors, he argued, could pressure European assets while encouraging capital flows back toward Japan and Asia.

According to Hayes, any resulting tightening in funding markets, including possible French bank withdrawals from repurchase operations, could raise U.S. Treasury financing costs and prompt hedge fund deleveraging. That sequence might compel the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet more rapidly through increased repurchase market activity. Hayes described the overall path as one of initial tightening followed by substantial dollar liquidity expansion, with crypto assets positioned to benefit quickly from the resulting flows.

Current Market Context and Position Details

At the time of the newsletter, Ether traded in the vicinity of $2,300 to $2,400, placing the $10,000 target several times above prevailing levels. Ethena changed hands near $0.15 to $0.16 and Ether.fi near $0.56 to $0.57. Bitcoin hovered around the mid-$70,000s. Hayes has previously described Ether as his top near-term selection among crypto assets, citing its role as a foundational layer for decentralized finance and its failure so far to reclaim the 2021 all-time high. He has also noted prior investments in both Ethena and Ether.fi.

Hayes attached no specific numerical target to the Bitcoin structural long in the latest commentary. In separate recent remarks he has maintained a longer-term constructive stance on Bitcoin, referencing the possibility of significantly higher prices by 2030 under conditions of sustained monetary expansion, while characterizing Ether as offering a more immediate risk-reward profile for capital deployment.

Broader Portfolio Stance and Exchange Update

Maelstrom continues to hold positions across major cryptocurrencies and earlier-stage tokens. Hayes indicated the firm does not short assets and instead moves between long exposure and a flat stance depending on macro signals. He recommended monitoring EURJPY put options as a potential expression of the euro-yen thesis.

Separately, Hayes addressed the planned shutdown of BitMEX, the derivatives exchange he co-founded. Operations are scheduled to end on September 23, with users instructed to close positions and withdraw funds beforehand. Hayes described the closure as occurring on the company’s own terms rather than under external pressure such as a security incident, framing it as a controlled wind-down amid what he views as challenging economics for mid-sized crypto exchanges facing high security and infrastructure costs.

Hayes’ latest targets arrive as market participants continue to track U.S. Treasury bond buyback activity and evolving central bank policy signals for their potential effects on dollar liquidity and risk assets.