SpaceX shares advanced sharply after Morgan Stanley reiterated its $300 price target and Overweight rating, describing the stock as cheap once growth prospects are factored into valuations. The move followed a strong Friday session and helped push the shares to their highest close in months.

Analyst Adam Jonas, in a note titled “Cheap and Getting Cheaper,” kept the $300 target that stands well above recent trading levels near $159 to $171. Shares closed Friday at $158.96 after a 7.35 percent gain and rose further on Monday, finishing around $171, up more than 7 percent for the session.

Growth-Adjusted Valuation Underpins Bullish View

Jonas argued that conventional multiples make SpaceX appear expensive. At recent prices the stock trades near 30 times estimated 2028 enterprise value to EBIT, compared with roughly 16 times for a group of mega-cap artificial intelligence companies. Adjusted for expected growth, however, SpaceX sits at about 0.3 times 2028 EV/EBIT-to-growth, roughly 40 percent below the peer median of 0.5 times.

Even at the $300 target the growth-adjusted multiple would reach only about 0.6 times, a level Jonas compared with Amazon at 0.5 times and below Alphabet and Meta. The analyst’s sum-of-the-parts framework assigns approximately $127 per share to the rocket launch and Starlink connectivity businesses, leaving about $32 per share for the artificial intelligence operations, including the Grok chatbot and computing capacity rented to customers.

Across roughly 13.2 billion shares that implies an AI valuation near $420 billion, which Jonas considers too low. Recent short-term neocloud computing contracts have priced capacity at $30 to $50 per watt, well above the $17.60 per watt assumed in many consensus models. Each additional $10 per watt on projected capacity could add more than $40 billion in revenue, according to the note.

Investor Hesitation and Key Concerns

Demand among institutional clients remains muted. Jonas reported that when he asked a group of 40 clients last week whether any held the stock, no one raised a hand. He identified two primary worries raised by investors: whether Grok can keep pace with competing AI models and whether Starlink can secure the necessary spectrum for its mobile service. Jonas said both issues are already reflected in the current share price.

SpaceX went public in June at $135 a share in what was described as the largest initial public offering on record. Shares later reached a post-IPO high of $225.64 before retreating. About 328 million shares became eligible for sale when the post-IPO lockup ended on September 24. Company president Gwynne Shotwell sold $52.5 million of stock around that time. The artificial intelligence unit reported a $1.26 billion loss in the most recent quarter and accounted for 86 percent of capital spending.

Wall Street’s broader view is more tempered. The average price target among analysts stands near $235, with some forecasts as low as $142.

Near-Term Catalysts Center on Starship and AI Progress

Jonas pointed to several developments that could support a re-rating. Starship Flight 15 is scheduled for late October or early November. A successful attempt to catch the returning spacecraft would represent the strongest positive catalyst since the IPO, in the analyst’s view. Flight 14 recently reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites, marking the vehicle’s first orbital and revenue-generating mission, though an engine issue shortened the flight.

Third-quarter earnings are due in late October. Additional Grok model releases and further neocloud computing agreements at the higher pricing levels already observed could also strengthen sentiment. Jonas outlined a scenario in which the stock could fall to $100 within a year only if AI progress slowed sharply, Starship testing suffered a severe setback, or the company executed a material dilutive financing.

Elon Musk has recently described SpaceX as a super-intelligence firm, a framing that places the company more firmly within the broader artificial intelligence infrastructure narrative alongside its traditional launch and satellite operations.

SpaceX shares have recovered from a mid-September low near $143 and now face technical resistance in the $165 to $170 zone. A sustained move above that area could open further upside toward $175 to $190, while a failure to hold recent gains would leave support near $150 in focus.