Grayscale, a major digital asset manager, has assessed the outlook for the CLARITY Act, proposed legislation designed to establish a full regulatory structure for cryptocurrency markets in the United States. According to Research Director Zach Pandl, the measure appears unlikely to clear Congress before the end of the year.

The Senate’s packed calendar combined with the dynamics of an election year create significant obstacles to securing the bipartisan consensus needed for advancement. Despite these hurdles, Pandl stressed that the sector’s core operations remain insulated from any short-term fallout.

Industry Track Record Without Comprehensive Rules

Digital assets have functioned in the United States for nearly 17 years in the absence of dedicated market structure legislation. Pandl stated that the failure of the CLARITY Act to become law this year would not produce an immediate effect on Bitcoin’s role as a store of value, the performance of leading blockchains, or the expansion of stablecoin payment systems.

He added that progress can continue through actions by federal regulators rather than new statutes from lawmakers.

Regulatory Agencies Expected to Address Gaps

Pandl anticipates that the Securities and Exchange Commission and other agencies will continue issuing rules and guidance to cover open areas. Particular attention is expected around tokenized securities in the months ahead. He described recent interpretative guidance on the application of federal securities laws to crypto assets as a meaningful advance for the industry.

Under the current administration, the sector has already seen gains in institutional custody arrangements, improved banking relationships, clearer policies on staking, and the expansion of exchange-traded products linked to digital assets. These developments, Pandl noted, provide a foundation for further movement even without the broader legislative package.

Potential Shift in Investment and Development Activity

While immediate market functions face limited disruption, the absence of comprehensive rules could constrain new capital formation and investment within the United States. Pandl cautioned that a larger share of fresh investment and developer work might move to jurisdictions outside the country. He characterized the delay as a missed chance for domestic growth rather than an acute setback for existing operations.

The CLARITY Act had been structured to expand pathways for capital raising through blockchain technology, foster markets for tokenized securities, establish oversight for digital asset intermediaries, and introduce safeguards for consumers, investors, and software developers.

Legislative Status and Near-Term Timeline

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed cloture on the motion to proceed, which sets the stage for a possible floor vote once lawmakers reconvene. The scheduled timing points to consideration after the return on September 15. Even with that procedural step, the bill currently lacks sufficient backing, and several obstacles in the Senate remain capable of blocking progress.

Grayscale’s assessment places the probability of full enactment in 2026 at a low level. At the same time, the firm maintains that regulatory agencies retain the capacity to close remaining gaps and that the industry’s established trajectory supports continued advancement on multiple fronts.