Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has drawn fresh attention to Bitcoin’s limited supply after noting that more than 20.07 million coins have already been mined as of August 2026. With the protocol’s hard cap fixed at 21 million, that leaves roughly 4.4% of the total still to be created through mining.

Zhao described Bitcoin as a deflationary asset and argued that the figure of coins already mined overstates the amount truly available for trading or transfer. He estimated that between 10% and 20% of the existing supply may be lost, stuck or permanently unrecoverable because of forgotten private keys, abandoned wallets or other forms of inaccessibility.

Reduced Effective Supply

Coins that can no longer be accessed cannot re-enter the market. Zhao’s estimate therefore implies that the operational supply available to participants is lower than the headline mined total. Applying the lower end of the range would leave approximately 16 million coins usable; the higher end would leave closer to 18 million.

This dynamic adds another layer of scarcity beyond the programmed issuance schedule. New supply continues to enter the network at a declining rate through successive halvings, while any permanently inaccessible coins further constrain the quantity that can change hands.

Ownership Implications

Zhao’s comments also touched on the practical difficulty of acquiring a full coin. A trader pointed out that the United States alone is estimated to have around 23.6 million millionaires. Zhao responded that millionaires may eventually find it hard to purchase an entire Bitcoin, given the combination of the fixed cap and the portion of supply that is already out of reach.

The remarks have revived earlier discussion of Zhao’s longer-term view that Bitcoin could reach $1 million under certain adoption scenarios around the 2033 cycle. He has previously framed that outlook as one possible path rather than a firm prediction, contingent on continued expansion of use and demand.

Market Context

The timing of the comments coincides with growing focus on the next halving, which will further slow the rate of new issuance. Market participants continue to track the interplay between declining new supply, the share of coins held long-term or in custody, and the portion that remains actively tradable.

While the exact volume of permanently lost Bitcoin cannot be verified with precision, on-chain analysis of dormant wallets has long supported the view that a material share of mined coins is effectively removed from circulation. Zhao’s public estimate of 10% to 20% aligns with the range of earlier assessments that have circulated in the industry.

Bitcoin’s protocol design ensures that no additional coins can ever be created beyond the 21 million limit. The combination of that hard ceiling, the diminishing block subsidy and the irreversible loss of some existing holdings forms the core of the scarcity case Zhao advanced.