Bitget CEO Gracy Chen anticipates Bitcoin will trade broadly near its recent levels through the end of the year, citing macroeconomic factors and interest-rate dynamics as primary influences on the cryptocurrency’s path. Speaking on a recent podcast, she described a measured outlook that accounts for Bitcoin’s growing ties to traditional financial markets.

Chen noted the difficulty of calling whether Bitcoin will close the year above or below the $70,000 mark. Higher interest rates, she indicated, could exert downward pressure on prices in theory. Her base-case view centers on stability rather than a sharp breakout or collapse.

She characterized a more responsible forecast as Bitcoin ending the year roughly $10,000 to $20,000 above or below current levels. At the time of her comments, Bitcoin traded near the high $70,000s.

Macro Conditions Shape the Outlook

Chen linked Bitcoin’s near-term performance to broader economic conditions. The asset has become increasingly sensitive to the same forces that affect risk assets, particularly shifts in interest-rate expectations. Any move toward higher rates could weigh on prices, she said, given the cryptocurrency’s deeper integration with traditional finance.

This perspective shifts attention from purely crypto-native catalysts toward the wider macroeconomic calendar. Traders monitoring directional signals may need to weigh evolving rate expectations alongside market momentum from recent gains.

Skepticism Over Active US Government Purchases

Chen expressed strong doubts that the United States will begin actively purchasing Bitcoin for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve before the end of President Donald Trump’s term. She viewed such a step as unlikely within the next two years.

The Trump administration established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025. The order directed the government to hold Bitcoin already forfeited through criminal or civil proceedings and to explore budget-neutral methods for potential additional acquisitions that impose no extra cost on taxpayers. No funding mechanism or purchase schedule was included.

Active market purchases would represent a substantially larger policy decision, Chen argued. Such a move would likely require debate among lawmakers and across political parties, even in a generally crypto-friendly environment. Retaining already controlled assets differs markedly from authorizing new open-market buying.

Public estimates of current US government holdings vary. Some trackers place the figure near 328,000 BTC, while others cite roughly 198,000 BTC, much of it accumulated through law enforcement seizures and forfeitures rather than direct purchases. The reserve order includes a general prohibition on sales of transferred Bitcoin, subject to limited legal exceptions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has previously stated that the reserve would grow through confiscated assets rather than direct buying, confirming the government would stop selling its holdings. Congressional proposals, including one aiming for large-scale purchases over multiple years, have not advanced into an active federal acquisition program.

Reserve Structure Limits Immediate Market Impact

The current framework removes a potential source of government supply by restricting sales of forfeited Bitcoin. It does not, however, generate recurring demand through scheduled Treasury purchases. Any plan involving new federal spending would require congressional authorization. Alternative approaches, such as revaluing gold certificates to fund acquisitions, would face separate legal and political obstacles.

For market participants, the reserve’s primary near-term effect centers on supply management rather than new official demand. The distinction between seized assets still subject to court proceedings and finally forfeited coins that become federal property adds complexity to precise holdings figures. Recent transfers of seized Bitcoin and Ether to custodial platforms have not confirmed sales.

Chen’s comments underscore that policy support for cryptocurrency does not automatically translate into active government accumulation. The combination of macroeconomic sensitivity and limited near-term official buying leaves Bitcoin’s year-end trajectory dependent on broader financial conditions rather than reserve-related demand.