Trump’s Diplomatic Stance Shapes Market Sentiment

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on October 8 that Washington was engaged in productive discussions with Iran and would not attack the country before the midterm elections. He described the contacts as constructive while confirming that the U.S. blockade on Iran would remain in place and that Tehran must not obtain a nuclear weapon. The statement came after reports that U.S. Central Command had prepared options for renewed military operations and that the Pentagon had considered large-scale strikes within weeks.

Oil prices retreated sharply following the announcement. WTI crude futures fell toward $90.40 from intraday peaks near $93.20, while Brent crude eased to about $102.91. The move reflected reduced expectations of immediate disruption to Middle East energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where 22 million barrels of oil passed the previous night without any entering or leaving Iran, according to Trump’s post.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran had received the U.S. response to its seven-day proposal and planned to reply within a few days. He added that Iran was more prepared to defend itself than before and would take measures if necessary. Prediction markets reflected the de-escalation outlook, with Polymarket traders assigning a 60 percent probability that any ceasefire would hold through November 15.

Bitcoin Price Action Reflects Geopolitical Relief

Bitcoin climbed above $82,000 on October 9, trading near $82,365 with a 24-hour trading volume of roughly $40.4 billion and a market capitalization of $1.65 trillion. The cryptocurrency had briefly approached $80,300 earlier in the week amid heightened uncertainty before rebounding. Prices remained about 5 percent lower over the seven-day period, however, as institutional selling pressure persisted.

Recovery in Bitcoin was not isolated. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana also posted gains, though none erased the broader weekly losses. The uptick coincided with a retreat in oil prices and a stabilization in risk assets following Trump’s pledge.

Institutional Flows and Profit Taking Weigh on Demand

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $244 million on October 8, the latest in a series of withdrawals that included $484.9 million on October 7—the largest single-day net outflow since June. BlackRock’s IBIT fund contributed $207.7 million of the October 7 losses, while other major products also saw redemptions. Ethereum spot ETFs faced similar pressure, with $72.54 million in net outflows that extended their losing streak to eight sessions.

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that Bitcoin holders had realized approximately $1.03 billion in profits on October 8—the second-highest daily figure of 2026. The level approached the year’s previous peak of $1.04 billion and followed a rally toward $87,000 that reversed quickly. Analysts noted the profit-taking as a factor in recent cooling after weaker-than-expected September U.S. employment data had supported an earlier push above $87,250.

Broader Market Context and Outlook

Bitcoin had slipped below $83,000 earlier in the week after Trump indicated limited interest in an Iran deal and hinted at further strikes, triggering leveraged liquidations of $546 million in positions and the largest daily ETF outflow in three months. The subsequent rebound on October 9 highlighted sensitivity to diplomatic signals over immediate military action.

Technical indicators showed limited buying strength despite the recovery. The RSI stood at 49.65, below its 60.73 moving average and signaling neutral momentum. Daily trading remained below the middle Bollinger Band at $84,281, with resistance ahead at $82,566 and $83,468. A daily close above $84,281 would improve near-term outlook, while a breach of $82,500 weekly support could expose the asset to further correction.

Earlier periods of heightened tension in September had produced similar volatility. Bitcoin had fallen below $78,000 after prior U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and recorded $115 million in long-position liquidations within one hour. Oil prices had risen 4.6 percent to $94.65 for Brent and 5.2 percent to $90.22 for WTI during those episodes, while the S&P 500 declined to its lowest level since August 4.