TD Cowen has increased its price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $400 per share from $395, while maintaining a Buy rating. The adjustment comes as the company continues to add Bitcoin at a rapid pace, outpacing previous expectations for the quarter.

Stronger Bitcoin Accumulation Drives Revision

Strategy's treasury operations have exceeded forecasts in recent weeks. Between May 11 and May 17, the company acquired 24,869 BTC for approximately $2.01 billion. This marked the largest single-week purchase in 2026, second only to a larger buy in April. As a result, Strategy now holds 843,738 BTC, representing more than 4% of Bitcoin's total supply.

Preferred equity issuance through the company's STRC product has been the main funding source in Q2 2026, raising about $1.95 billion with limited common equity dilution. Nearly all proceeds went directly into Bitcoin purchases. TD Cowen now projects around 100,000 BTC acquired in the quarter alone.

Balance Sheet Moves Add to Positive Outlook

Beyond accumulation, Strategy retired approximately $1.5 billion in out-of-the-money convertible notes at an 8% discount to face value. Analysts view this as a positive step that reduces fully diluted share exposure, improves credit quality, and lowers future refinancing risk.

At the time of the report, MSTR shares traded near $165, well below the 52-week high around $455-457. The new $400 target implies potential upside of roughly 140% from those levels.

Valuation Approach Behind the Target

TD Cowen's methodology applies a 3x multiple to its 2026 BTC Dollar Gain estimate, adds projected year-end Bitcoin holdings valued at $132.9 billion, and subtracts net debt and preferred equity obligations. This framework underscores the direct linkage between Strategy's Bitcoin holdings growth and shareholder value.

Broader Market Context for Bitcoin

The update arrives as Bitcoin trades near the $76,000-$77,000 support zone. Market participants watch this range closely, with potential downside toward $70,000-$72,000 if it breaks. Meanwhile, the next Bitcoin halving remains on the horizon, with historical patterns suggesting possible cycle lows in late 2026.

Regulatory signals also appear constructive, including moves toward clearer frameworks for tokenized stocks, which could further integrate traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure.

Strategy's approach continues to position it as a major corporate Bitcoin treasury vehicle. The combination of aggressive accumulation funded through preferred equity and opportunistic debt management has strengthened its position, according to TD Cowen. While near-term Bitcoin price action remains volatile, the long-term thesis tied to Bitcoin ownership per share appears reinforced by these developments.