Regulated U.S. prediction market Kalshi is confronting allegations of inflated trading activity in its cryptocurrency perpetual futures contracts after a quantitative analyst publicly questioned reported figures for its ether perpetual product.

The analyst, known as Beni and co-founder of Stealth Neolab, pointed to approximately $539 million in 24-hour trading volume on the ETH-PERP contract against open interest of about $3.1 million. That ratio of roughly 174 times has been described as a potential indicator of wash trading, in which repeated buying and selling can boost volume totals without a corresponding increase in outstanding positions.

Unusual Trade Patterns Cited

Beni also highlighted a pattern of identical $5,500 trade sizes that he said accounted for as much as 58 percent of the ether perpetual volume on several days. He characterized the repetition as evidence of volume manipulation.

In addition, the analyst referenced a fee rebate schedule filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Under the program applicable to crypto perpetuals, eligible Self-Clearing Members can face a net cost near zero through a 0.3-basis-point maker rebate paired with a 0.3-basis-point taker fee. Beni argued that such economics could reduce the cost of trading against oneself and thereby encourage artificial activity.

Kalshi’s September filing with the regulator confirms those rates for cryptocurrency and metals perpetual markets and states the program is scheduled to run through the end of the year unless changed. The same document excludes transactions involving self-matching, wash trading, pre-arranged trades or other abusive practices from rebate eligibility. The exchange’s chief regulatory officer retains authority to revoke program participation and pursue disciplinary action.

Platform Response and Clarifications

Kalshi’s crypto lead, who posts as IcoBeast.eth, rejected the wash-trading claims. He stated that the original criticism mixed prediction-market data with perpetual futures figures, noting that an Artemis chart referenced in the discussion measured prediction-market share rather than perpetual contract volume.

He explained that Kalshi follows an industry convention also used by other platforms in which reported volume equals the maximum potential payout on contracts rather than the cash amount spent by traders. Because each event contract settles at $1 for the winning outcome, a purchase of 100,000 contracts priced at 30 cents is recorded as $100,000 in volume even though only $30,000 in cash changes hands. The company maintains this method captures genuine user demand.

IcoBeast.eth further clarified that Kalshi does not apply the cited rebate program to its crypto event prediction contracts. On the perpetual side, he said Self-Clearing Member status is available to any firm that meets regulatory capital and operational requirements, consistent with the CFTC’s fair-access mandate.

He acknowledged that the U.S. perpetual product remains early-stage but stressed the transparency difference from offshore venues.

Regulatory Context and Further Claims

No public CFTC enforcement action has targeted Kalshi over the ETH-PERP activity in question. The exchange has separately partnered with Nasdaq Market Surveillance to monitor both event contracts and perpetual futures for potential manipulation and abusive trading.

Maker rebates of the type described are used by other derivatives venues, including programs operated by Hyperliquid and Binance. Kalshi’s filing states that it reviewed manipulation risks, applies heightened monitoring to participating members and offers the incentives on nondiscriminatory terms.

Beni later stated he had received additional non-public information and planned to release further details after consulting lawyers. As of the latest available reports, no independently verified evidence supporting that claim had been made public.

Kalshi launched its Ethereum perpetual futures in June following the introduction of a regulated Bitcoin perpetual contract and has since expanded the product line. Earlier company figures indicated total perpetual volume exceeded $5.5 billion in the initial weeks after rollout.