CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to produce gains of three to five times rather than the tenfold or larger parabolic advances seen in earlier market phases. He also anticipates a milder subsequent downturn than the sharp corrections of prior cycles.

Ju shared the outlook in a social media post, linking the moderated returns to structural changes in the market. Bitcoin’s expanded capitalization and rising institutional participation have altered the dynamics that once allowed rapid price swings driven largely by retail speculation.

Shift Away from Extreme Volatility

In previous cycles, when Bitcoin’s market was smaller and dominated by individual investors, speculative capital fueled explosive rallies followed by drawdowns of as much as 80 percent. Ju argues that today’s larger market and greater institutional ownership dampen those extremes in both directions.

He described the change as a trade-off: forgoing the steepest upside also reduces the severity of future declines. This environment, in his view, attracts patient long-term capital instead of short-term speculative flows.

Ju noted that the maturation process could make Bitcoin more suitable as a longer-term holding and, over time, potentially more practical for broader monetary use if volatility continues to ease.

On-Chain Data Supporting the Outlook

Several on-chain metrics form the basis of Ju’s assessment. The market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio remained above 1 throughout the current cycle, indicating that holders as a group stayed above their average on-chain cost basis even during significant price declines.

Realized capitalization has continued to rise, a signal Ju interprets as fresh capital entering the network. Early large holders, sometimes called OG whales, have reduced or halted selling activity. In addition, major futures-market participants established sizable long positions near recent cycle lows.

CryptoQuant’s profit-and-loss index, which incorporates measures of holder profitability, has shown less extreme peaks and progressively higher levels at cycle bottoms. Its longer-term moving average is now at an inflection point, according to the firm’s analysis.

Recent Price Action and Cycle Context

Bitcoin recently traded near $87,000 after recovering from levels around $58,000 in late June. The asset reached approximately $87,395 on September 21, marking its highest point since late January. From those June lows, a threefold advance would place Bitcoin near $174,000, a fourfold move near $232,000, and a fivefold gain near $290,000. These levels sit above the previous record of about $126,080 set in October 2025.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded notable inflows during the recent recovery, returning many ETF holders to profitable territory after the price climbed above their average cost basis near $81,722. Institutional and corporate treasury demand has also contributed to the broader capital base supporting the market.

Ju has not assigned a specific price target or timeline for the projected gains. His comments describe the expected scale of the full cycle under the present market structure rather than a precise forecast from current levels. Price action will continue to depend on liquidity conditions, investor positioning, and broader demand trends.

The analysis presents a view of Bitcoin entering a phase of more measured growth and reduced amplitude in both bull and bear phases, shaped by its increased size and the composition of its holder base.