Brent crude oil briefly traded above $100 a barrel on Tuesday, marking its first sustained move past that level in roughly three months. The advance followed a series of drone and missile attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on energy sites and cities in southern Saudi Arabia, adding fresh supply risks to an already strained market.

The global benchmark reached about $100.03. The last time Brent held above $100 came in May, after a short-lived breach in late July reversed the same day. West Texas Intermediate also climbed, trading above $93.

Attacks Target Saudi Facilities and Cities

Houthi forces launched dozens of drones and ballistic missiles at Abha, Jazan, Najran and Khamis Mushait. Fires broke out at Saudi Aramco sites, and 73 people were wounded, including women and children. Jazan hosts a refinery capable of processing roughly 400,000 barrels per day.

Saudi military spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Malki described the assault as a serious escalation and said deterrent measures would follow. Damage assessments at the Jazan facility indicated limited physical impact in some reports, though earlier strikes had already forced suspensions at nearby refining operations.

The attacks came after weekend U.S. strikes on three Iranian oil tankers, which Central Command linked to a network funding Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and regional proxies. The broader U.S.-Iran conflict has now stretched into its seventh month.

Middle East Exports Already Sharply Reduced

Middle Eastern crude shipments currently run near 11 million barrels per day, down from about 18 million barrels per day before the conflict began. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried 8 million to 9 million barrels a day, dropped below 2 million at points after fighting resumed in late August, according to energy analysts.

Physical grades remain tight, with Dubai and Oman crude trading between $104 and $105 a barrel. Alternative export routes, continued limited Hormuz traffic and rising non-OPEC production from the United States, Canada and Guyana—expected to add a combined 1.4 million barrels per day—have so far cushioned the full impact on prices.

China’s large inventories and signs of demand destruction estimated near 3.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter have also limited further gains until now.

Goldman Raises Forecasts and Flags Higher-Risk Scenario

Goldman Sachs lifted its Brent forecast by $5 to $85 for December and sees an average near $80 in 2027 under its base case of a smaller supply deficit. The bank said Brent could exceed $120 a barrel if average Gulf production in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.

The probability of Brent trading above $100 in March 2027 has risen to roughly 25 percent from about 6 percent a month earlier. OPEC+ offered no immediate additional supply relief, with seven producers agreeing to keep October required production at September levels and the next review set for Oct. 4.

Brent has climbed nearly 40 percent from its July low near $72 and more than 30 percent since the conflict began in late February.

Diesel Markets Signal Acute Tightness

European diesel crack spreads recently exceeded $100 a barrel for the first time, while wholesale diesel prices moved toward $200 a barrel. U.S. refiners are operating near full capacity, with national utilization at 98 percent in the latest week. Commercial crude inventories fell to about 424.5 million barrels.

The combination of crude above $100, limited spare refining capacity and tight product markets arrives as energy costs continue to feed into broader inflation readings. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in the year to July, with gasoline up 24.6 percent and the energy index up 14.7 percent.

Iran has threatened a maritime exclusion zone in the Persian Gulf and warned that U.S. energy companies operating there face significant risk. Tehran is also negotiating with Oman on a temporary secure shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with talks described as nearing completion. Market participants remain cautious that diplomacy will quickly ease the underlying tensions.