Bernstein analysts outlined a constructive multi-year outlook for Bitcoin in a research note released Wednesday, projecting the cryptocurrency will reclaim its previous peak near $125,000 by the end of 2026 and advance to $150,000 by the middle of next year under a base-case scenario. The firm sees a potential cycle high around $300,000 in 2029, with a more optimistic path reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 at the cycle top. Its longer-term projection of roughly $1 million by 2033 remains unchanged.

Bitcoin has rebounded approximately 28 percent over the past 10 days after declining about 50 percent from its October 2025 high near $125,000. The asset recently traded near the $78,000 to $80,000 range. Bernstein attributed the relatively contained drawdown compared with the 75 percent to 90 percent declines of prior cycles to greater participation by institutional investors and corporate buyers, which the firm said has added structural downside support.

Cycle Framework and Production-Cost Model

The forecasts rest on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which Bernstein links to the periodic halving of new supply awarded to miners. The firm divides each cycle into four phases—breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation—and values the asset as a multiple of the marginal cost of production, or the estimated expense for the least efficient miners to create new coins.

Under the base case, the price-to-marginal-cost multiple is expected to decline gradually from 1.4 times at the 2025 peak to about 1.25 times at a projected $300,000 high in 2029 and roughly 1.2 times at the $1 million level in 2033. Analysts stated that they assume the multiple will behave in a manner similar to previous cycles.

In a bull-case scenario driven by more aggressive institutional capital flows, Bitcoin could accelerate beyond the base path. Bernstein also pointed to a broader macroeconomic theme it termed the “debasement trade.” Rising global sovereign debt loads and interest expenses, the firm argued, may encourage policymakers to favor currency devaluation over austerity, increasing the relative appeal of scarce assets such as Bitcoin.

Institutional Structure and Reduced Volatility

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury allocations and a more mature holder base are expected to limit the severity of future corrections. Bernstein noted that ETF outflows during prior pullbacks have stayed relatively modest, indicating that regulated product holders have shown less tendency toward panic selling than earlier retail-dominated markets.

These structural changes, combined with the debasement dynamic, underpin the firm’s view that the current cycle can deliver higher absolute prices even if multiples compress over time.

Strategy Rating Maintained, Target Reduced

Bernstein kept its “Outperform” rating on Strategy, the publicly traded company that holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, but cut its price target to $350 from $450. The revision reflects the updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and the impact of accelerated equity issuance used to fund additional purchases. Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoin, equivalent to roughly 4 percent of the asset’s maximum supply of 21 million coins. Shares of Strategy closed recently near $127.

The firm indicated that continued Bitcoin strength, together with a recovery in Strategy’s Stream preferred stock toward $100, could enable the company to resume more aggressive Bitcoin accumulation after earlier sales of approximately 7,000 coins in 2026. The preferred shares recently traded near $97.

Bernstein’s note arrives as market participants assess whether the recent rebound marks the early stages of a new upward phase following the 2025 peak and subsequent correction. The firm’s projections remain contingent on historical cycle patterns holding and on the continuation of institutional demand trends observed in recent years.