CLARITY Act Passage Odds Cut to 50-50 as Senate Schedule Tightens

Galaxy Research Downgrades CLARITY Act Outlook

Galaxy Digital’s research team has reduced its estimated chance of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing in 2026 to 50-50. The firm lowered the figure from 60% in recent weeks, citing the Senate calendar as the main factor.

The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote in May and sits on the legislative calendar. However, no merged text from the Banking and Agriculture committees has been released, and no floor vote date has been set.

Tight Legislative Calendar Creates Challenges

Senators return from recess on July 13, leaving a short window before the August break. Multiple priorities compete for floor time, including the National Defense Authorization Act and other measures.

President Trump’s decision to link approval of a housing bill to the SAVE Act has added further pressure to the schedule. This standoff has complicated efforts to advance other legislation in the limited session days available.

Unresolved Policy Issues

Negotiations continue on several fronts. Ethics provisions have divided lawmakers, with discussions on conflict-of-interest rules ongoing. Law enforcement groups have sought changes to developer protections in the incorporated Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.

The U.S. Department of Justice has pushed back against some concerns, stating the bill would not hinder investigations into crimes involving digital assets.

Senator Lummis Outlines Timeline

Senator Cynthia Lummis has indicated that a final compromise text could emerge around July 4, with a target for Senate floor action in mid-July. The House has already passed its version of market structure legislation, setting up the need for reconciliation if the Senate passes amendments.

Market and Industry Context

Polymarket data shows traders assigning roughly 41% probability to the bill becoming law in 2026. Advocacy groups have called for action before the November midterms to maintain momentum on digital asset regulation.

The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the distinction between securities and commodities for digital assets, providing a framework for exchanges, custodians, and token issuers while addressing DeFi and stablecoin treatment.

Staff-level work between committees continues, but private discussions have not translated into public milestones such as a scheduled debate. A leadership announcement on floor time in the coming weeks could shift expectations upward, while further delays would likely lead to additional reductions in passage probability estimates.